Estimation of selected operating data of the Unipetrol Group for the fourth quarter 2009
Unipetrol’s Management Board hereby announces its estimates of the selected financial and operating data of Unipetrol Group for the fourth quarter 2009.
Reg. Announc. 2/2010
| External Environment | unit. | 4Q08 | 1Q09 | 2Q09 | 3Q09 | 4Q09 | Q/Q | Y/Y | FY08 | FY09 | FY08/FY09 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Average Brent crude oil price
|
USD/b
|
56.4
|
44.8
|
59.4
|
68.2
|
74.9
|
+10%
|
+33%
|
97.6
|
61.8
|
-37%
|
|
Average Ural crude oil price
|
USD/b
|
54.6
|
43.7
|
58.5
|
67.8
|
74.2
|
+9%
|
+36%
|
94.7
|
61.0
|
-36%
|
|
Brent/Ural differential
1)
|
USD/b
|
1.83
|
1.19
|
0.92
|
0.45
|
0.68
|
+51%
|
-63%
|
2.95
|
0.81
|
-73%
|
|
Unipetrol model refining margin
2)
|
USD/b
|
5.14
|
4.23
|
1.28
|
1.31
|
1.38
|
+5%
|
-73%
|
5.69
|
2.05
|
-64%
|
|
Unipetrol model petrochemical olefin margin
3)
|
EUR/t
|
503
|
146
|
183
|
269
|
240
|
-11%
|
-52%
|
353
|
210
|
-41%
|
|
Unipetrol model petrochemical polyolefin margin
4)
|
EUR/t
|
36
|
276
|
242
|
256
|
251
|
-2%
|
+597%
|
207
|
256
|
+24%
|
|
CZK/EUR
5)
|
CZK
|
25.3
|
27.6
|
26.7
|
25.6
|
25.9
|
+1%
|
+2%
|
24.9
|
26.4
|
+6%
|
|
CZK/USD
5)
|
CZK
|
19.2
|
21.2
|
19.6
|
17.9
|
17.5
|
-2%
|
-9%
|
17.0
|
19.0
|
+12%
|
|
USD/EUR
|
USD
|
1.32
|
1.30
|
1.36
|
1.43
|
1.48
|
+3%
|
+12%
|
1.47
|
1.39
|
-5%
|
1) Spread fwd Brent Dtd vs Ural Rdam = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)
2) Unipetrol model refining margin = revenues from products sold (97% Products = Gasolines
17%, Petchem feedstock 20%, JET 2%, Diesel 40%, Sulphur Fuel Oils 9%, LPG 3%, Sulphur 1%, Other
feedstock 5%) minus costs (100% input = Brent Dated); products prices according to
quotations.
3) Unipetrol model petrochemical olefin margin = revenues from products sold (100% Products =
40% Ethylene + 20% Propylene + 20% Benzene + 20% Naphtha) minus costs (100% Naphtha); products
prices according to quotations.
4) Unipetrol model petrochemical polyolefin margin = revenues from products sold (100%
Products = 60% HDPE + 40% Polypropylene) minus costs (100% input = 60% Ethylene + 40% Propylene);
products prices according to quotations.
5) Quarterly average foreign exchange rates by the Czech National Bank.
Source: ICIS, PLATTS, FERTWEEK, THOMSONREUTERS, CNB
| UNIPETROL Group Production | unit. | 4Q08 | 1Q09 | 2Q09 | 3Q09 | 4Q09 | Q/Q | Y/Y | FY08 | FY09 | FY08/FY09 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Crude oil throughput
|
th t
|
1,111
|
1,018
|
848
|
1,156
|
1,087
|
-6%
|
-2%
|
4,533
|
4,110
|
-9%
|
|
Utilisation ratio
|
%
|
79
|
74
|
62
|
84
|
79
|
-5pp
|
0pp
|
82
|
75
|
-7pp
|
|
Light distillates yield
1)
|
%
|
31
|
32
|
28
|
32
|
33
|
+1pp
|
+2pp
|
31
|
31
|
0pp
|
|
Middle distillates yield
2)
|
%
|
43
|
43
|
47
|
43
|
44
|
+1pp
|
+1pp
|
44
|
44
|
0pp
|
|
Heavy distillates yield
3)
|
%
|
10
|
8
|
11
|
10
|
11
|
+1pp
|
+1pp
|
10
|
10
|
0pp
|
1) LPG, gasoline, naphtha
2) JET, diesel
3) Fuel oils, bitumen
| Sales volumes - Refinery products | unit. | 4Q08 | 1Q09 | 2Q09 | 3Q09 | 4Q09 | Q/Q | Y/Y | FY08 | FY09 | FY08/FY09 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Fuels and other refinery
products
|
th t
|
784
|
729
|
615
|
824
|
746
|
-10%
|
-5%
|
3,324
|
2,915
|
-12%
|
|
Diesel
|
th t
|
382
|
377
|
325
|
422
|
358
|
-15%
|
-6%
|
1,700
|
1,482
|
-13%
|
|
Gasoline
|
th t
|
179
|
171
|
133
|
179
|
176
|
-2%
|
-2%
|
685
|
659
|
-4%
|
|
JET
|
th t
|
21
|
16
|
10
|
28
|
21
|
-24%
|
0%
|
88
|
75
|
-15%
|
|
LPG
|
th t
|
33
|
31
|
18
|
35
|
30
|
-14%
|
-9%
|
126
|
115
|
-9%
|
|
Fuel oils
|
th t
|
60
|
61
|
18
|
28
|
34
|
+21%
|
-43%
|
210
|
141
|
-33%
|
|
Naphtha
|
th t
|
1
|
1
|
5
|
1
|
0
|
-100%
|
-100%
|
6
|
7
|
+16%
|
|
Bitumen
|
th t
|
59
|
29
|
65
|
84
|
61
|
-28%
|
+3%
|
258
|
239
|
-7%
|
|
Lubs
|
th t
|
10
|
8
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
-7%
|
-5%
|
42
|
38
|
-9%
|
|
Rest of refinery
products
|
th t
|
38
|
34
|
31
|
38
|
56
|
+49%
|
48%
|
209
|
159
|
-24%
|
|
Retail distribution -
Benzina
|
th t
|
124
|
109
|
128
|
134
|
122
|
-9%
|
-2%
|
501
|
494
|
-1%
|
| Sales volumes - Petrochemicals | unit | 4Q08 | 1Q09 | 2Q09 | 3Q09 | 4Q09 | Q/Q | Y/Y | FY08 | FY09 | FY08/FY09 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Petrochemicals
|
th t
|
366
|
463
|
454
|
464
|
444
|
-4%
|
+21%
|
1,830
|
1,825
|
0%
|
|
Ethylene
|
th t
|
26
|
38
|
35
|
37
|
32
|
-13%
|
+25%
|
148
|
143
|
-4%
|
|
Benzene
|
th t
|
35
|
45
|
40
|
49
|
48
|
-1%
|
+38%
|
179
|
182
|
+2%
|
|
Propylene
|
th t
|
5
|
8
|
5
|
14
|
9
|
-37%
|
+75%
|
27
|
36
|
+34%
|
|
Urea
|
th t
|
39
|
48
|
36
|
41
|
44
|
+7%
|
+11%
|
182
|
169
|
-7%
|
|
Ammonia
|
th t
|
47
|
51
|
61
|
61
|
59
|
-5%
|
+24%
|
192
|
232
|
+21%
|
|
C4 fraction
|
th t
|
30
|
38
|
29
|
37
|
39
|
+5%
|
+31%
|
165
|
144
|
-13%
|
|
Oxo-alcohols
|
th t
|
10
|
11
|
6
|
1
|
0
|
-49%
|
-96%
|
56
|
18
|
-68%
|
|
Polyethylene (HDPE)
|
th t
|
57
|
70
|
85
|
61
|
70
|
+13%
|
+22%
|
286
|
286
|
0%
|
|
Polypropylene
|
th t
|
39
|
53
|
58
|
52
|
50
|
-4%
|
+27%
|
196
|
214
|
+9%
|
|
Rest of petrochemical
products
|
th t
|
78
|
100
|
99
|
110
|
93
|
-16%
|
+20%
|
399
|
402
|
+1%
|
Management Board commentary regarding preliminary operating and macroeconomic data for the
fourth quarter 2009:
The crude price continued its recovery during the fourth quarter 2009 with average quarterly
crude price increasing by 10% quarter-on-quarter and was one third above the level that we have
seen this period last year. The B-U price differential finally showed signs of slight improvement
and widened to almost USD 0.7 per barrel, still significantly lower than historical average.
Margins in refining remained subdued and petrochemical gave up slightly its gains from previous
quarter. The CZK strengthened quarter-on-quarter against the USD and weakened against the EUR,
which more than offsets in CZK terms negative effect of strengthening against the USD.
Refining
The main factors that influenced the quarter-on-quarter performance of refining segment in the
fourth quarter 2009 were: lower crude oil throughput by 6% (negative), the widening B-U price
differential by 51% (positive), stronger CZK against the USD by 2% (negative), still low refining
margin with continuously adverse situation especially for middle distillates (negative), inventory
effect (positive), ongoing cost cutting measures (positive) and lower demand for fuels given the
seasonality pattern (negative).
Petrochemicals
The main factors that influenced the quarter-on-quarter performance of the petrochemical
segment in the fourth quarter 2009 were: lower demand by 4% (negative) with demand for polyolefins
making up partly for lower demand for olefins, slow down mode on steam cracker for two months due
to external and internal factors (negative), ongoing cost cutting measures (positive), lower olefin
as well as polyolefin margins due mainly to increasing price of feedstock (negative) and sale of
unused CO2 credits in 2009 (positive).
Retail Distribution
The main factors that influenced quarter-on-quarter performance of the retail segment in the
fourth quarter 2009 were: unit margins remained relatively unchanged at above average levels
reached towards the end of previous quarter (neutral), 9% lower demand due to seasonality pattern
(negative), statistics shows an improvement in transit transportation (positive) and ongoing cost
cutting measures (positive).
Inventory and FX effects
The fluctuation in the crude oil and its derivatives prices during the fourth quarter 2009
influenced the results of the Unipetrol Group positively in refining and negatively in
petrochemical.
Development of foreign exchange rates, especially positive development of the EUR versus USD
exchange rate in the fourth quarter 2009, influenced positively the results of the Unipetrol
Group.
One-off items
Due to the sale of unused 2009 CO2 credits in the fourth quarter 2009, we expect to book
materially positive impact on the EBIT level in the amount of approximatelly CZK +300m.
Management Board EBIT estimate
Unipetrol’s Management Board estimates that the reported EBIT of the Unipetrol Group in the
fourth quarter 2009 will be
negative and
better than the EBIT reported by the Unipetrol Group in the fourth quarter 2008 but
worse than in the third quarter 2009.
The financial information published in this report is estimated and the values may differ from
the values which will be published on 25 February 2010 in Unipetrol’s consolidated financial
statements and/or the presentation for the fourth quarter 2009.
In Prague, on 2 February 2010
Management Board of Unipetrol
and
Investor Relations Department
Unipetrol, a.s.
Na Pankraci 127, 140 00 Prague
Czech Republic
Tel.: +420 225 001 417
E-mail: ir@unipetrol.cz
www.unipetrol.cz
2 Feb 2010
