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Estimation of selected operating data of the Unipetrol Group for the fourth quarter 2011

Unipetrol’s Management Board hereby announces its estimates of the selected financial and operating data of Unipetrol Group for the fourth quarter 2011.

External Environment
unit
4Q10 
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
Q/Q
Y/Y
FY10
FY11
FY11/
FY10
Average Brent crude oil price
USD/b
86.5
105.4
117.1
113.4
109.4
-4%
+26%
79.5
111.3 
+40%
Brent/Ural differential 1)
USD/b
1.5
2.9
2.9
0.7
 0.3
-57%
-80%
1.4
 1.7
+21%
Unipetrol model refining margin 2)
USD/b
4.5
1.6
0.3
1.1
 0.8
-27%
-82%
3.4
 0.9
-74%
Unipetrol model petrochemical olefin margin 3)
EUR/t
255
345
353
292
 262
-10%
+3%
288
 313
+9%
Unipetrol model petrochemical polyolefin margin 4)
EUR/t
278
281
288
251
 214
-15%
-23%
282
 259
-8%
CZK/EUR 5)
CZK
24.8
24.4
24.3
24.4
 25.3
+4%
+2%
25.3
 24.6
-3%
CZK/USD 5)
CZK
18.2
17.8
16.9
17.3
 18.8
+9%
+3%
19.1
 17.7
-7%
USD/EUR
USD
1.36
1.37
1.44
1.41
 1.35
-4%
-1%
1.33
 1.39
+5%
1) Spread fwd Brent Dtd vs Ural Rdam = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)
2) Unipetrol model refining margin = revenues from products sold (97% Products = Gasolines 17%, Petchem feedstock 20%, JET 2%, Diesel 40%, Sulphur Fuel Oils 9%, LPG 3%, Sulphur 1%, Other feedstock 5%) minus costs (100% input = Brent Dated); products prices according to quotations.
3) Unipetrol model petrochemical olefin margin = revenues from products sold (100% Products = 40% Ethylene + 20% Propylene + 20% Benzene + 20% Naphtha) minus costs (100% Naphtha); products prices according to quotations.
4) Unipetrol model petrochemical polyolefin margin = revenues from products sold (100% Products = 60% HDPE + 40% Polypropylene) minus costs (100% input = 60% Ethylene + 40% Propylene); products prices according to quotations.
5) Quarterly average foreign exchange rates by the Czech National Bank.
Source: REUTERS, FERTWEEK, ICIS, CNB
 
UNIPETROL Group
Production
unit
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
Q/Q
Y/Y
FY10
FY11
FY11/
FY10
Crude oil throughput
th t
1,141
879
1,112
941
1,008
+7%
-12%
4,352
3,940 
-9%
Utilisation ratio 1 )
%
90
69
87
74
79
+5pp
-11pp
85
77
-8pp
Light distillates yield 2)
%
32
32
33
35
33
-2pp
+1pp
32
33
+1pp
Middle distillates yield 3)
%
42
46
43
46
45
-1pp
+3pp
43
45
+2pp
Heavy distillates yield 4)
%
9
8
9
10
8
-2pp
-1pp
10
9
-1pp


1) Conversion capacity 5.1 mt/y (Ceska rafinerska – Kralupy 1.6 mt/y, Ceska rafinerska – Litivinov 2.8 mt/y, Paramo 0.7 mt/y)
2) LPG, gasoline, naphtha
3) JET, diesel, light heating oil
4) Fuel oil, bitumen

  

Sales volumes
- Refinery products
unit
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
Q/Q
Y/Y
FY10
FY11
FY11/
FY10
Fuels and other
refinery products 1)
th t
897
793
908
896
842 
-6%
-6%
3,548
3,439
-3%
Diesel 1)
th t
466
421
489
444
435
-2%
-7%
1,844
1,789
-3%
Gasoline 1)
th t
185
185
204
234
204
-13%
+10%
815
827
+1%
JET
th t
22
9
25
25
20
-20%
-9%
86
79
-8%
LPG
th t
37
25
28
33
30
-9%
-19%
130
116
-11%
Fuel oils
th t
60
68
27
29
38
+31%
-37%
197
162
-18%
Naphtha
th t
10
6
0
0
5
n/a 
-50%
19
11
-42%
Bitumen
th t
66
32
85
84
63
-25%
-5%
293
264
-10%
Lubs
th t
11
11
11
11
10
-9%
-9%
42
43
+2%
Rest of refinery products
th t
39
35
39
36
37
+3%
-5%
121
147
+21%

 
 1) Includes retail distribution - Benzina  
 
 
Sales volumes
- Petrochemicals
unit
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
Q/Q
Y/Y
FY10
FY11
FY11/
FY10
Petrochemicals
th t
457 2)
449 2)
446 2)
387
387
0%
-15%
1,843 2)
1,668 
-9%
Ethylene
th t
36
44
35
34
35
+3%
-3%
165
 148
-10%
Benzene
th t
56
58
53
43
47
+9%
-16%
211
 201
-5%
Propylene
th t
15
11
10
10
11
+10%
-27%
51
 42
-18%
Urea
th t
50
52
42
41
39
-5%
-22%
195
 174
-11%
Ammonia
th t
43
36
35
28
31
+11%
-28%
147
 130
-12%
C4 fraction 1)
th t
19
20
21
15
15
0%
-21%
120
 71
-41%
Butadien
th t
14
14
15
14
16
+14%
+14%
30
 59
+97%
Polyethylene (HDPE)
th t
68
68
70
63
61
-3%
-10%
288
 262
-9%
Polypropylene
th t
56
58
59
51
44
-14%
-21%
241
 212
-12%
Rest of petrochemical
products
th t
100 2)
89 2)
106 2)
88
88
0%
-12%
394 2)
 371
-6%
1) As of June 2010, only 51% of C4 fraction sales considered as external due to launch of Butadien Kralupy.
2) Corrected

Management Board commentary regarding preliminary operating and macroeconomic data for the fourth quarter 2011:
The crude price oscillated around USD 110 level, however average quarterly crude price decreased by 4% quarter-on-quarter. The average
B-U price differential further narrowed to USD 0.3 per barrel. Margins in refining and petrochemical segment declined quarter-on-quarter. The CZK weakened quarter-on-quarter both against USD and EUR.

Refining
The main factors that influenced the quarter-on-quarter performance of the refining segment in the fourth quarter 2011 were: worse refining margin driven mainly by lower gasoline and naphtha spreads (negative), narrowed B-U price differential further weakened by high “Brent-Other sweet crude oils” price differential (negative), higher crude oil throughput by 7% due to the finalization of cyclical shutdown in Litvinov refinery, which started in 3Q (positive), LIFO effect (positive), weaker CZK against the USD by 9% (positive) and 6% lower volumes of fuels sold, especially gasoline, due to the start of winter season (negative).

Petrochemicals
The main factors that influenced the quarter-on-quarter performance of the petrochemical segment in the fourth quarter 2011 were: lower olefin as well as polyolefin margin by 10% and 15% respectively on lower spreads across all type of benchmark products except ethylene (negative), suppressed sales volumes due to lower than expected GDP growth in 4Q (negative), LIFO effect (positive) and weaker CZK against the EUR by 4% (positive).
 

Retail Distribution
The main factors that influenced the quarter-on-quarter performance of the retail segment in the fourth quarter 2011 were: lower sold volumes due to the continuation of decrease in private consumption of customers and adverse fuel price differential to some neighbouring countries (negative), lower unit margins on diesel with gradual stabilization in the second half of December (negative), flat unit margins on gasoline with slight decline in last two weeks of December (negative) and a sharp drop in non-fuel segment sales (except car wash) due to the unfavourable weather conditions (negative).

Management Board estimates
Unipetrol’s Management Board estimates that the reported EBIT of the Unipetrol Group in the fourth quarter 2011 will be negative and worse than EBIT from the third quarter.
In LIFO calculation EBIT is estimated to be negative and worse than the reported EBIT.
 
 
Total expenditures (incl. investments) related to cyclical shutdown booked in 4Q11 are estimated to be approx. CZK 300m.
 
 
Operations with CO2 allowances are estimated to have a positive EBIT impact of approximately CZK 140m in the fourth quarter 2011.
 
 
Development of foreign exchange rates is estimated to influence negatively the financial result of the Unipetrol Group by approximately CZK 380m in the fourth quarter 2011.
 
 
Unipetrol estimates that it will book one-off item on EBIT level in the amount of over CZK 500 million related to the impairment of fixed assets of its subsidiary PARAMO, a.s. The reason for the impairment is the decrease in the value of the assets due to the deteriorated external environment, in which PARAMO, a.s. operates.

The financial information published in this report is estimated and the values may differ from the values which will be published on 9 February 2012 in Unipetrol’s consolidated financial statements and/or the presentation for the fourth quarter 2011.

In Prague, on 26 January 2012
Management Board of Unipetrol
and
Investor Relations Department
UNIPETROL, a.s.
Na Pankraci 127, 140 00 Prague
Czech Republic
Tel.: +420 225 001 417
E-mail: ir@unipetrol.cz
www.unipetrol.cz
 

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26 Jan 2012

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